Draft
Why the bot bets half of what the formula says
Notes on choosing Half-Kelly sizing for a strategy whose edge is still a guess.
Trading systems · Risk
The Kelly criterion gives the bet size that maximises long-run growth, but only if you know your edge exactly. In a new experiment you don't. Betting half the Kelly fraction gives up some growth and reduces the damage when the edge estimate is too optimistic.
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Prediction-Market Bot